On the brink of peace - and war

Ironically, disgraced former Philippine leader Joseph Estrada may have paved the way for the cease-fire deal by smashing rebel bases with his "fight, fight" strategy. With little infrastructure left, and with a new president more eager to talk, the rebels decided to strike a deal.

Malaysia helped, too. The mostly Muslim nation helped broker the deal between the largely Muslim Philippine rebels and the government. This is not the first time that the Philippines, a predominately Roman Catholic nation, has turned toward some of its Muslim neighbors for assistance in negotiating with the Islamic separatists. In the past, playing peacemaker was a role often reserved for Indonesia, a regional heavyweight and the world's most populous Muslim nation. But the sprawling archipelago's persistent problems have lowered its profile as a Southeast Asian mediator, a position that Malaysia is keen to fill.

"Indonesia used to be the principal broker in the negotiations, but because if its internal problems, Indonesia has lost some of its influence and Malaysia stepped in," says Alexander Magno, a University of the Philippines political scientist.

Northern Ireland has also benefitted from third-party intervention. Through the efforts of US Sen. George Mitchell and others, the deep historical roots of the Northern Ireland conflict have been largely surmounted in recent years.

Protestant Unionists and Catholic Republics now work together on local councils. A power-sharing Ulster Assembly has given Northern Ireland a taste of self-rule.

The IRA has made what it regards as a breakthrough offer on arms decommissioning. Unionists, impatient over how long the decommissioning process has dragged on, have rejected the offer as insufficient. Britain could reimpose London rule as early as this weekend.

In some ways, the situation in Northern Ireland is similar to that in the Middle East, say experts. Those who want peace are unable, or unwilling, to control the extreme elements among them.

In the Middle East, those extreme elements appear to be in the saddle. The US-brokered negotiations during the Clinton years may have failed to pay enough attention to the growing impatience of the Palestinian street with its miserable existence.

In both the Northern Ireland and the Middle East case, "the missing ingredient is an insufficient attention to politics," says John Alterman of USIP.

Brokering efforts must not only pay attention to current problems, but to the burden of the past, adds Joseph Montville, director of the Preventative Diplomacy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

In Northern Ireland, much of the progress made in the past came about after "the Catholics recognized the need to reassure Protestants that Catholics didn't have in mind any retaliation for centuries of repression" through the so-called Good Friday agreement, says Montville.

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