On the brink of peace - and war

In an unusual confluence of events, some of the world's longest-standing and most difficult peace efforts have reached a crucial stage at nearly the same time. Their future course now depends on the will of central participants - and on the redoubled efforts of key third-party peacemakers.

In some cases, peace deals are proceeding against all predictions. Macedonia may yet avoid the downward spiral of ethnic fighting in which so many of its Balkan neighbors have been caught. In Asia, the new government of the Philippines has struck a promising pact with rebels - with the help of a concerned neighbor, Malaysia.

But in others, the peace work of generations now hangs in the balance. Northern Ireland has come so far, yet its opposing parties may be losing the strength and desire to control their own extremists. Israel and the Palestinians are at war in all but name. The US deplores it, while saying conditions are not right for more active mediation.

"Where the US has been successful [in the Mideast] is when the parties themselves reached agreement, the US has been able to walk the last mile with them and get them to sign," says John Alterman, a Mideast specialist at the US Institute of Peace in Washington. "The US has never been very successful at bringing the sides from very far apart."

In Macedonia - where the European Union has been the most active mediator - the parties have been very far apart, indeed. In fact, intense violence erupted yesterday in the town of Tetovo. That may yet derail the power-sharing agreement struck by ethnic-Slavic and Albanian political parties on Wednesday.

The pact was set for an official signing ceremony on Monday. Even if it enters into force, it will not be easy to implement and may even cause more civil unrest, say analysts. The agreement calls for use of Albanian as an official language, police reforms in Albanian areas, and the deployment of 3,500 NATO troops to disarm rebels of the self-styled National Liberation Army (NLA).

Macedonians see the accord as capitulating to terrorists, while the Albanian rebels see it as a watered-down version of civil rights meant to trick them.

"I don't think [this pact] has much of a chance.... There are certain people on both sides who benefit from conflict," says Vera Budway, assistant coordinator of the Southeast European Cooperative Initiative in Prague, Czech Republic.

The Europeans have been heavily involved in Macedonia, in part because they do not want to see another flood of refugees swamp the Balkans. Their involvement may not have yet halted the violence - but so far, at least, it has prevented the all-out war that devastated Bosnia.

"If it weren't for the international negotiators, there would already be a full-scale civil war going on, without a doubt," says Ms. Budway.

In the Philippines there is more optimism. Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo took a great leap this week, toward resolving the conflict in the southern Philippines, where three decades of fighting between government forces and Muslim rebels has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

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