Disruptions of a new Dust Bowl

"There's not much opportunity for relief in that area," says Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the US Department of Agriculture. "They're going to have to rely on what little snow they had and wait until the next rainy season."

That's already proving problematic. At Crater Lake in Oregon, the snowpack that usually measures 80 inches this time of year is already completely melted.

Indeed, climatologists say the Northwest, suffering its second worst drought since 1895, is their biggest concern at the moment. Water is in short supply and high demand, especially with the current electricity crisis.

Hydroelectric plants are competing against farmers and conservationists for water in the rivers - many of which are now mere rivulets. The Yellowstone River, for instance, is running at a 40-year low. It's so depleted that the paddlefish have been unable to swim upstream to spawn.

In nearby Montana, a dozen large rivers are in differing stages of trouble, including several that are premier fly-fishing destinations - something that brings millions of dollars into local economies. Farmers and ranchers, who need the water for irrigation, are fighting with tourism promoters and biologists trying to leave enough water for the fish.

Talk these days - echoed at meetings of the governor's Drought Task Force - is that unless rains come, fishing could either be restricted or shut down on certain rivers by mid-summer. Last summer, forest fires in Montana forced the closure of all public lands to recreation.

"We're far drier than we were last year at this time," says Jess Aber, a water expert with the Montana Department of Natural Resource and Conservation.

Forecasts for stream flows, soil-moisture readings, and reservoir-storage projections are all worse than last year. Already, every county in Montana has been classified as being severely drought-affected. "People are getting anxious," says Mr. Aber.

Why the dry spell

While farmers, ranchers, and golf courses are struggling to cope, scientists are looking at their computer printouts for reasons for the drought - and its duration. El Nino and La Nina climate patterns are often cited.

But researchers are also looking at history. Some experts believe the Dust Bowl fell under a stronger yet less well-known weather pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an El Nino-like occurrence that hit North America particularly hard. Some experts believe the US is now experiencing the effects of a similar phenomenon.

If there's anything good in the current drought, it that it's spurring a greater sense of readiness. States have begun drafting drought mitigation plans, increased monitoring, and improved coordination among agencies. "Before the drought of 1998, officials had no capability to capture lessons learned," says Dr. Hayes. "We had many, many years of states running around trying to reinvent the wheel."

Sam Simmons is relying on his own wits to get through the dry spell. The south Texas farmer has replaced his water-intensive crops, such as sugar cane and vegetables, with cotton and grain sorghum. Even so, he's struggling.

"I hope I'm not losing a whole lot," he says. "I don't like to think about it."

Reported by Todd Wilkinson in Bozeman, Mont., Jennifer LeClaire in Winter Haven, Fla., and staff writer Kris Axtman in Austin, Texas. Written by Ms. Axtman.

(c) Copyright 2001. The Christian Science Monitor

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