Putin's endgame for Chechen bear trap

"It took over a decade, but the [rebels] were isolated from society, ground down, and gradually eliminated," says Arkady Popov, a specialist on ethnic conflicts with the Merkator Group, an independent Moscow think tank. "Of course, Russia is no longer a totalitarian state, but the emphasis on using the FSB in Chechnya suggests these methods will now take the foreground in this struggle."

But critics say Mr. Putin is frantically seeking ways to reduce the constant stream of Russian losses and to stem the inexorable erosion of public support for the seemingly endless conflict. Last weekend, separatist forces struck a police post in the heart of Mr. Kadyrov's administrative center, Gudermes, reportedly killing 14 troops. A repetitive study by the independent Institute for Public Opinion Research in Moscow has found that public backing for continuing the military campaign has fallen from a high of 70 percent in February, 2000, to 38 percent last week.

"The Kremlin is grasping at straws, trying desperately to regain the initiative in a war that is hopelessly bogged down and clearly unwinnable," says Galina Kovalskaya, a military expert who covers Chechnya for the weekly Itogi.

Analysts say Putin could be responding to lobbying from the Army brass, who have been trying to unload responsibility for the conflict. "The attitude of the generals is that they've done their part, smashed the rebels' main formations, and now it's time to pass the buck to someone else. Let the FSB have this hot potato," says Mr. Felgenhauer. "It probably won't actually result in any major troop pullbacks, but at least the generals in Moscow won't have to take the political heat anymore."

Some analysts suggest the Kremlin has been greatly impressed by Mr. Kadyrov, a warlord from Gudermes who was elected Chechnya's first Mufti, or Muslim spiritual leader, in 1995.

"Kadyrov has received more audiences with Putin lately than most government ministers get," says Mr. Popov. "He has apparently persuaded Putin that the Army, with its looting and violent ways, is the main obstacle to stabilizing the situation in Chechnya." But few experts believe Kadyrov can live up to his own ambitions. "Kadyrov wants to run things, but his writ does not extend beyond his own town of Gudermes - and is limited even there," says Ms. Kovalskaya.

Ultimately, the Kremlin could be driven to the same conclusion that most of the world's imperial powers have had to face in their day: that there may be no solution to the Chechnya problem under the Russian flag.

"The experience of similar conflicts around the world suggests that Russia's current tactics in Chechnya will simply not work," says Alexander Iskanderyan, director of the independent Center for Caucasian Studies in Moscow.

"At the moment, the Kremlin is just projecting its own confusion and paralysis onto the situation in Chechnya."

(c) Copyright 2001. The Christian Science Publishing Society

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