Putin's endgame for Chechen bear trap
Today, Europe's top human rights body considers reinstating Russia, censured for Chechnya excesses.
Struggling to find an exit from the increasingly unpopular 16-month-old military campaign to subdue secessionist rebels in the volatile republic of Chechnya, President Vladimir Putin has hit upon a strategy eerily reminiscent of the US experience in Vietnam.Skip to next paragraph
Subscribe Today to the Monitor
The plan, laid out in a series of Kremlin decrees over recent days, is to radically scale back the Russian military presence in the north Caucasus republic from the current 80,000 troops to a permanent garrison of just 22,000. The pullback is slated to begin in mid-February.
Also, the task of destroying the remaining Chechen rebel groups will pass from the Army to the Federal Security Service (FSB) - successor to the Soviet-era KGB.
A real measure of political power is to be handed to the Kremlin-appointed head of Chechnya's administration, former Muslim cleric and ex-separatist leader Akhmad Kadyrov, and armed Chechen police forces under his command expanded from 5,000 to 15,000 men.
Critics say a campaign to "Chechenize" the conflict will lead to the same disastrous outcome that met American attempts to give South Vietnamese forces "the tools to do the job" of defeating a Communist insurrection in the early 1970s, or the USSR's hopes that a pro-Moscow regime in Afghanistan could hold out after Soviet troops withdrew in 1989.
"It's an old colonial tactic to try to get local forces to do your fighting for you," says Pavel Felgenhauer, a military expert. "But Moscow has very few cards to play in this game. Basically, there are no forces that can defeat the rebels where the Army has failed."
Some argue the whole plan is a propaganda gambit, to convince Russians and the world that the war is over in Chechnya and that civil conditions there are normalizing despite the deadly clashes that take place on an almost daily basis.
Today, the influential Council of Europe is set to begin hearings on Moscow's human rights record in the conflict, and to consider whether Russia's voting rights in the body - taken away amid a wave of criticism last year - should be restored. "Of course the timing of these Kremlin announcements looks calculated to influence world public opinion," says Viktor Litovkin, a political analyst with the liberal Obshaya Gazeta newspaper. "But the decisions were made some time ago, and are dictated by the Kremlin's own political logic rather than external concerns."
Supporters say it is a logical response to the changing character of the conflict. "Moscow always called it an antiterrorist operation, but in fact it was a full-scale war in its first stages," says Yuri Gladkeyevich, an analyst with the independent AVN military news agency. "But now the enemy's main forces have been defeated, and it is mainly a problem of consolidating civilian authority while using special forces to hunt down the remaining [rebels]."
Transferring control of military operations to the FSB suggests the Kremlin has in mind post-World War II counter-insurgency campaigns waged by the USSR against guerrillas in the Baltic States and western Ukraine.