Glaciers in the Himalayas melting at rapid rate

Take the three-mile long Dokriani Barnak glacier, one of the many formed after the Indian subcontinent collided with the Asian landmass 40 million to 50 million years ago. The glacier is one of the most studied in the world. Since 1990 it has receded a half mile. After a numbing sub-arctic winter in 1997, scientists expected Dokriani to expand. Instead, in the summer of 1998, it receded farther.

"That is a phenomenal melt rate," Joseph Gergan of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology told Science magazine. The rate was high again this year.

How much warmer the monsoon rains are as a result of global warming, and how much thicker they fall, is a matter of debate. Scientists disagree over the actual causes of melting glaciers and to what degree the greenhouse gases are responsible.

Since the Little Ice Age" that lasted from 1430 to about 1850, global temperatures have risen. In the past 30 years, the earth's overall average temperature has increased by 5 degrees F., by some estimates. In Bonn this week, the environmental ministers from around the world met to set targets for cutting pollution. Syeda Sajeda Chowdhury, Bangladesh's minister for environment and forests, said that nearly 20 percent of her country could be under water in 15 years if global warming isn't controlled.

"The Indus rose to unprecedented levels this summer, and one reason is glacial melt," says Kathleen McGinty, a former aide to Vice President Al Gore and a fellow at the Tata Energy Research Institute in New Delhi, who visited Ladakh this summer. "We can't say that greenhouse gases are the main reason. But we can say that the melt is consistent with a global pattern that marks the signature of climate change."

Yet some scientists scoff. They say the sky is not falling - or, in the case of the Himalayas, melting. ICSA officials argue that some 2,000 of the 10,000 eastern Himalayan glaciers have melted in the last century. Others say the number is wildly exaggerated. "To attract attention to the issue, some scientists make dramatic statements," says one Delhi-based climatologist who requested anonymity. "These glacial data are early warnings and need to be taken seriously. But the boundaries of glaciers are never fixed. They recede, but they also expand. It is far too early to judge. No one has really studied the problem thoroughly."

Exactly, says Ms. McGinty. "That is why I use the old adage, 'Never let common sense get in the way of another study.' "

Lack of data stems from little cooperation between politicians and scientists in the region. Pakistan doesn't cooperate with India. Bhutan is still largely a closed society. What is needed is a satellite study from above, some say. That possibility is on the way, compliments of NASA and the US Geological Survey. During the first week of December, a satellite devoted to observing the Ganga plains will be launched.

(c) Copyright 1999. The Christian Science Publishing Society

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