In the land of Reagan, a party in panic
As George W. Bush heads to the Golden State, GOP hopes for a spark to
When George W. Bush comes to California next week looking for support, he'll find a Republican Party looking for a savior.Skip to next paragraph
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The once-proud party that produced Ronald Reagan is on the ropes and could get knocked into long-term second-place status in the next election if it doesn't find a strong candidate to rally behind, say a broad range of political analysts here.
That, of course, would have huge implications nationally, given California casts more electoral votes in the selection of the president than any other state. But in this state more than most, politics is about people more than party loyalty, and one strong candidacy can change everything.
That's one reason many party faithful are practically salivating over Texas Governor Bush, who leads among Republicans and voters as a whole in state polls. Perceived as moderate, Latino-friendly, and charismatic, Bush is the rising star many hope will pull in voters who have been drifting away and help pull the party out of its tailspin.
But whether the nominee turns out to be Bush, Elizabeth Dole, or one of the other nine Republican hopefuls, many observers here agree this is a crucial moment in the state party's history.
"We're at a very delicate position that will determine how we do as a party in the long term," says Sacramento GOP campaign consultant Ray McNally. "If we're not careful, we could guarantee minority status for ourselves for years to come."
Based on data gathered over several recent election cycles, Field Poll analyst Mark DiCamillo says flatly, "Republicans need to reassert themselves now if they want to avoid ceding the state to the Democrats."
Like a Los Angeles sunset, Republicans have had some spectacular successes in recent years that may have masked a darkening sky. Triumphs with anti-affirmative action and anti-illegal immigration ballot initiatives were also alienating for many moderate, and particularly Latino, voters.
After some period of ambivalence, Republicans "now understand how deeply they've been hurt," says political scientist Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of Claremont Graduate University.
It's none too soon given the trend lines for Republicans, say a number of analysts. They took a shellacking of historic proportions last November. Despite holding the governor's office for the past 16 years, the GOP was enthusiastically swept aside by voters to make way for Democrat Gray Davis. He won by 20 percentage points and was gaining strength right up to election day.
That thumping would be less worrisome to Republicans if it were only a sign of an inept campaign and the wrong candidate. But beyond that outcome were several indicators that the state's voters are increasingly drifting away from the Republican ranks.
The most dynamic component of the California population, and electorate, is Latinos. Historically, they've tilted Democratic, but Republicans have been able to get a respectable 30 percent or so of their votes. Last November, though, the Republican gubernatorial candidate got only 17 percent.