On the road for a new Nigeria

Africa's largest oil producer faces the problem any single-export country has when the prices for that commodity fall. It looks for help abroad to diversify its economy.

That's why Nigeria's incoming president, Olusegun Obasanjo, is traveling to tap not only foreign investors but also the estimated $50 billion that Nigerians squirreled away overseas while their land was in turmoil under military rule.

Already, since his election Feb. 27, the former political prisoner has logged thousands of air miles in his travels around Africa, Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the United States (for which Nigeria serves as fifth-largest supplier of crude oil). He is trying to reinvent his country's image before the world and garner support for its economic needs before he takes office on May 29.

Mr. Obasanjo says in an interview in New York that he will cut his country's dependency on oil, which accounts for 99 percent of its export earnings and this year may fall to just $7 billion - a little more than half its 1997 revenues.

"The main purpose [of my trips] is to let important centers of the world know what is happening in Nigeria, and to galvanize support for investment," he says, pointing specifically at the manufacturing and service industries.

Obasanjo's meetings in Western cities have not been confined to courting foreigners. He played host at a reception at the grand New York Palace Hotel for Nigerians living in the area.

"There are at least 3 million Nigerians living abroad who would like to get involved in their homeland but have been discouraged from doing so because of political instability," says Peter Lewis, an expert on Nigeria's economy at American University in Washington.

"By one estimate, on the low side, there's $50 billion being held abroad by Nigerians.

"A year's oil revenue in a good year is about $10 billion to $12 billion. So you can imagine what will happen if you could mobilize a third of Nigerian money being held abroad.

"That money can go and come back and be reinvested. You can have multiplier effects through this capital circulating in the economy.

"I don't think that most people expect foreign investment to be the salvation of the Nigerian economy," Mr. Lewis adds. "The main source of dynamism today is likely to come both from people within the country who are holding back their money for a safe and reliable investment opportunity and those living abroad."

At stake in the effort at economic revival is not only Nigeria's welfare but also that of West Africa.

Africa's most populous nation (an estimated 120 people) is the main contributor to a peacekeeping force in Sierra Leone - much to the relief of the United Nations, whose troubles on the continent have led to a reluctance to engage its troops in the civil war.

And Obasanjo, who will assume the presidency as Nigeria's first civilian leader in 15 years, believes that his country's political course will be "a catalyst to success of democracy" elsewhere in the continent.

In order to play such a prominent role and attract foreign capital, Nigeria will have to disentangle itself from its heritage of corruption - a task that Obasanjo says he is committed to tackling.

But the retired general will face some strong enemies in a country that has been ruled by the military for three-quarters of its 39 years of independence.

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