After '98 (whew), a peek at '99
From Mexico City to Beijing, Monitor reporters look at events and forces likely to shape the next year.
Will 1999, a countdown year to the next millennium, be able to top 1998 for momentous events?
It will be hard to beat 1998 for the drama of the Clinton impeachment, the worldwide experience of bizarre weather such as hurricane Mitch, or the historic milestone of two more nations (India and Pakistan) obtaining nuclear weapons.
Rather, the final days of the 20th century may look, oddly enough, like its early decades: war in the Balkans and Africa, turmoil in Russia, China's leaders worried about uprisings, Europe struggling to redefine itself, Far East nations coping with poverty, and the world economy on a roller coaster.
To be sure, this century has reached a peak of peace, prosperity, and democracy. But many events in 1999 may be related to the continuing cleanup of this century's longest war (the cold one), which created new forms of terrorism and tyranny, and left many nations destitute.
Monitor reporters raised their periscopes to look at likely events in 1999. Here are their reports:
MOSCOW
Russia lurches into 1999 expecting more of the economic and political turbulence that marked this past year.
No signs exist that Russia will be able to easily climb out of its economic collapse, which began on Aug. 17 with the sudden devaluation of the ruble, collapse of the banking system, and Moscow's default on some debts. Russians have entered this winter hungry, poorer, and dependent on foreign food aid.
The big question is whether the West will bail out Russia or abandon it to economic, and therefore political, meltdown.
The coming year spells D-day for debts: some $18 billion of state debt and $15 billion in commercial debts will fall due.
Can Russia pay? Most experts think not.
Will the West bail it out, considering the past history of corruption and mismanagement? So far there are no signs it will. Debt forgiveness looks like an elusive dream.
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has so far failed to design an economic plan that will convince Western lenders that it is safe again to engage Russia. His draft budget has too little tax collection and too much spending to satisfy the International Monetary Fund.
Anxiety reigns on the political front, too. This will be a decisive year in determining the shape to come of Russia, which has been ruled by one man - President Boris Yeltsin - since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.
Mr. Yeltsin spent most of the past year being treated for health problems and his authority has eroded drastically. "Will he last another year?" many Russians ask.
Mr. Primakov, acting as de facto vice president, is trying to maintain stability while politicians across the spectrum jockey for 1999 parliamentary elections and the 2000 presidential vote.
Will the next leader be a Communist? An authoritarian nationalist? Does this mean the end of liberal free marketeers whose efforts failed so miserably? Will Russia grow more distant from the West?
If Yeltsin dies in office, Russia will be thrown into a confusing and costly early election for which the country is not yet prepared. But if he remains in power, more policy stagnation in his lame-duck reign is bound to prevail.
- Judith Matloff
ASIA
The people of East and Southeast Asia hope 1999 will put a stop to their downward slide.
1998 brought severe recession to Southeast Asia and saw Japan experience its worst downturn since the end of World War II. Political upheaval gripped many capitals. A hungry people and an inscrutable leadership continued to define North Korea.
No one will know until it happens, but 1999 could be a turnaround year. Most economists believe that Japan's economy will continue to shrink, but not as much as it did this year. Some other key economies in the region - notably South Korea and Thailand - seem ready to begin to put the Asian crisis behind them, thanks to steps toward economic reform.
