Congo Contenders Bargain on the Price of Peace

Last year it took Rwandan President Paul Kagame two months to admit it - that Rwandan troops had spearheaded the assault on Congo's capital, Kinshasa, toppling longtime dictator Mobutu Sese Seko and putting Laurent Kabila in power.

This year Mr. Kagame is not likely to make any such confession.

Tiny Rwanda has strenuously denied its involvement in the anti-Kabila rebellion in neighboring Congo, and will probably continue to do so publicly.

But, as talks to end the five-week conflict resume in Zimbabwe, observers say that Rwanda will privately have to acknowledge the presence of its troops halfway across the continent in western Congo - and negotiate their way out after becoming trapped by pro-Kabila forces.

This would give President Kabila a bargaining chip he is unlikely to trade in cheaply.

The situation on the ground has changed little since Angola's powerful intervention on the side of Kabila last month.

What was supposed to be a lightning attack on Kinshasa by the Rwandan-backed rebels failed some 20 miles from its objective after Zimbabwean troops sealed off the capital and Angolan artillery sent the rebels fleeing. Now pro-Kabila forces control western Congo, while the rebels - ethnic Tutsis backed by both Rwanda and Uganda - control the east.

Safe passage for rebels?

Analysts predict that the safe passage of rebel troops from west to east will top the agenda in the talks at Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe - and may emerge as a precondition to further negotiations.

"Rwanda is determined to prevent the slaughter of some of its most seasoned and well-trained forces in the west," says a longtime observer of the region. "These are many of the same men who have had victory after victory in East Africa, [backing leaders] from [Yoweri] Museveni in Kampala, to Kagame in Kigali, to Kabila in Kinshasa.

"Failing to take the capital [Kinshasa] with a massive airlift is bad enough. But the suggestion that the core of that front-line force is going to be snuffed out, smashed between the Zimbabweans and Angolans - that's unacceptable."

Origin of conflict

The current cycle of events in eastern and central Africa is often traced back to the rise of President Museveni in Uganda 12 years ago. Fighting in the bush alongside Mr. Museveni were many exiled Rwandan Tutsis, who in 1990 launched an invasion of Hutu-controlled Rwanda out of bases in Uganda.

Their victory in mid-1994 stopped the genocide of more than 500,000 Tutsis and politically moderate Hutus. Three years later Rwanda and Uganda spearheaded a military campaign against the late dictator Mobutu in what was then called Zaire and delivered Kabila to power in the renamed Congo.

Now, saved by the intervention of Angola and Zimbabwe, Kabila faces his onetime allies in negotiations that will determine the future of this region for some time to come.

President Pasteur Bizimungu of Rwanda is among the participants. So is Kabila's present supporter, President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe.

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