Surf's Up - Way Up

Epel Ilon, foreign minister of Micronesia, says his home island in the Mortlock Atolls is suffering extensive erosion damage. "Climate change is impacting us directly, and there is no doubt that there is a human impact on climate change," he says.

There is scientific consensus that global warming and sea-level rise are occurring, but scientists remain divided as to whether it is due to normal climate cycles, greenhouse-gas emissions, or some combination of the two. Most suspect that such emissions are at least partly responsible.

Disappearing beaches

Signs of erosion can be seen almost everywhere in the Marshalls. On Majuro - home to the government, half the country's population, and three-quarters of its infrastructure - concrete sea walls have been battered away, allowing the sea to consume large swaths of scarce topsoil and chunks of roadways. Coconut palms slowly die and fall along the waterfront as their roots are exposed by waves during storms or especially high tides. The airport has been inundated on several occasions, despite an eight-foot sea wall. A popular beach on the west end of the main island has all but disappeared, the sand carried off into the lagoon. People dump old cars and machinery on the shore to form sea breaks.

"I never believed in global warming before. Now I do because the tides flood the land not twice a year as before, but at any time," says hotel manager Issac Maurau, who moved here from Fiji 10 years ago. "I'm very worried about it and am glad my family and children are still in [high-lying] Fiji."

Some of the erosion on Majuro is probably created or enhanced by poor coastal-development practices and the dredging of the lagoon for sand to use in construction projects, local officials say. But erosion is also occurring on outer islands that have no development. Bikini and Rongelap atolls were evacuated due to fallout from US atomic testing years ago, but on recent visits elders noticed alarming shoreline changes and loss of scarce land.

A 1992 study produced by the South Pacific Regional Environment Program of the effects of predicted sea-level rise on Majuro Atoll warns of chronic erosion and minor flooding punctuated with major flooding and land loss during storm surges and typhoons. The latter is expected to cause long-term damage due to massive land loss, salinization of groundwater, and the destruction of vegetation.

The study prescribes preparation of sea wall, the construction of buildings on stilts, and - as a last resort - the complete evacuation of the population.

The latter would be extremely traumatic. The Marshallese have lived here for thousands of years, longer than Germanic or Slavic people have lived in Europe or Anglo-Saxons in Britain.

Preparations needed

The country is poorly equipped to deal with the predicted effects of global warming. An extensive system of sea wall would cost more than $100 million for Majuro atoll alone. The total gross domestic product of the country is about $80 million, more than half of which consists of annual grants from the United States, which could terminate as early as 2001. Unemployment, foreign debt, and the population growth rate are all high, making responses to global warming a low priority.

"We don't even have warning systems to alert people that danger is approaching," says Danny Wase, director of the national Marine Resources Authority. "If science has shown this will happen, our people need to be prepared for the worst."

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