THE 13 KEYS TO THE PRESIDENCY

There are 13 factors or "keys" to determine whether an incumbent party retains the White House, according to Allan Lichtman's prediction system. If six or more of the 13 statements are false, the incumbent president is not likely to be reelected. So far, numbers 1, 7, 11 and 12 are false for Clinton.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third Party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term Economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy Change: Incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Source: Allan Lichtman, "The Keys to the White House," 1996 edition.

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