Pundits Reach Conclusion: Bush or Clinton Will Win

CLINTON campaign insiders claim their polls are showing the Arkansas governor's lead over President Bush in double-digits in at least 19 states, reports Monitor staff writer Marshall Ingwerson. Those states alone are only 20 electoral votes shy of the 270 needed to win. That list does not count states such as Michigan, Ohio, New Jersey, Georgia, North Carolina, or Florida, where the Clinton campaign also claims solid leads. And if Ross Perot actively enters the race, Gov. Bill Clinton's polls show his lead over Mr. Bush immediately doubling in North Carolina and Florida.On the other hand, two prominent formulas used to forecast presidential elections months in advance - one by Ray Fair of Yale University and another by political scientists Michael Lewis-Beck and Thomas Rice - have called the election for Bush. But in a close look at the uncertainties in both equations, writes political scientist Nathaniel Beck, results "ranging from an impressive Bush victory to a major defeat [are] not out of the question."

Such are the marvels of modern political science.

Waiting for Perot - Not!

Edward Rollins, the Republican political consultant who managed Ross Perot's short-lived presidential campaign earlier this year, is not exactly welcoming the Texas billionaire into the race with open arms. In a New York Times Op-Ed piece Sept. 28, Mr. Rollins says his former boss "is completely void of any substance, commitment, or veracity" and that Perot has made himself look "kooky."Rollins concludes that the Texan "should quit tampering with the democratic process simply to massage his ego, badly bruised when the country finally learned he wasn't who he pretended to be...." Moral of the story: If you hire a hired gun, make sure he stays hired.

Saying goodbye to top adviser

Clinton and a host of his senior campaign advisers will be in the Washington, D.C., area this week to attend the funeral of colleague Paul Tully, reports Monitor staff writer Amy Kaslow. A prominent liberal strategist who devoted his 24-year political career to electing a Democratic president, Mr. Tully died suddenly last week in a Little Rock, Ark., hotel room. Tully, the political director of the Democratic National Committee, was the driving force behind the Clinton campaign, say Democratic advisers in Little Rock.

Did we say everybody was welcome?

The Democratic nominee got a resounding welcome in Boston Sept. 25, reports Monitor staff writer Shelby Siems. But the candidate might have preferred that some visitors not stop by - or, as the case may be, circle overhead. The rally was punctuated by Bush/Quayle campaigners screaming "Four more years" to Clinton supporters' retort of "Four more months." At the same time, a plane flew above trailing a banner with the message: "Hey, Slick, tell the truth." Mixed among the crowd's pro-Clinton placards was one reminding the Democratic nominee of a stickier time in the campaign. The sign read: "Blondes for Bill."

Chicken Watch II: The Sequel

The latest installment in the never-ending saga of the giant chicken pursuing our nation's chief executive....

People wearing chicken outfits, trying to goad President Bush into debating Gov. Bill Clinton, have been spotted at Bush campaign appearances across the nation. After a week of this treatment, the president finally offered a rejoinder during a campaign swing through Ohio and Michigan.

"We saw all kinds of animals on this trip, and in this crowd somewhere we caught sight of the chicken...." Bush said. "There he is, the chicken. I'm not sure if that chicken is from Oxford, England or if he's the one that dumps that fecal coliform bacteria into the Arkansas River."

Score a double for the president. In one joke he managed to evoke an image of Bill Clinton sitting out the Vietnam war at a prestigious foreign university and to draw attention to chicken waste dumped into the river in Clinton's Arkansas. -PATHNAME- /usr/local/etc/httpd/plweb/DBGROUPS/paper/database/tape/92/sep/day30/30092.