Charles Manatt on voting trends

By , Staff correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

Democratic National Chairman Charles Manatt forecasts that the "gender gap" -- men's and women's differing voting patterns -- will favor the Democrats more than ever in this year's elections.

Political analysts have traditionally held that voter patterns do not vary among the sexes. But Mr. Manatt says that in 1980 about 50 percent of all men voted for President Reagan. In contrast, only 45 percent of women voters chose Mr. Reagan.

Manatt predicts that this trend will continue, and that the 5 percent gender gap in 1980 will at least double this fall.

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At breakfast with reporters on Oct. 15, Manatt also said:

* The President "still is politically formidable. . . But people are beginning to find him stubborn and intransigent. And I think that they will be wanting to send him a message this time by their vote, that they don't agree with the way he is handling unemloymnet, welfare claims, and the economy in general."

* He predicts Democrats "will gain 15 or more seats in the House" in the fall elections. "I think also," he said, "we will have a net gain in the governor races and pick up three to five seats in the Senate." Rating the 1982 US Senate races Democratic incumbent seats Dem. GOP rating rating EAST Maine 1 1 Mitchell* (D) vs. Emery (R) Maryland 1.5 2 Sarbanes* (D) vs. Hogan (R) Massachusetts 2 2 Kennedy* (D) vs. Shamie (R) New York 2 2 Moynihan* (D) vs. Sullivan (R) MIDWEST Michigan 1.5 1.5 Riegle* (D) vs. Ruppe (R) Nebraska 2 1.5 Zorinsky (D) vs. Keck (R) North Dakota 1.5 1.5 Burdick* (D) vs. Knorr (R) Ohio 1.5 1 Metzenbaum* (D) vs. Pfeifer (R) Wisconsin 2 2 Proxmire* (D) vs. McCallum (R) WEST Arizona 2 1.5 DeConcini* (D) vs. Dunn (R) Hawaii 2 2 Matsunaga* D) vs. Hecht (R) Montana 0.5 0.5 Melcher* (D) vs. Williams (R) Nevada 1 1 Washington 2 2 Jackson* (D) vs. Jewett (R) SOUTH Florida 1.5 1.5 Chiles* (D) vs. Poole (R) Mississippi 1 1 STennis* (D) vs. Barbour (R) Tennessee 1.5 1 Sasser* (D) vs. Beard (R) Texas 1.5 1 Bentsen* (D) vs. Collins (R) Virginia 0.5 0 Davis (D) vs. Trible (R) West Virginia 2 1.5 Byrd* (D) vs. Benedict (R) Republican incumbent seats EAST Connecticut 0 0 Weicker* (R) vs. Moffett (D) Delaware0.5%H1.5 New Jersey 1 1.5 Fenwick (R) vs. Lautenberg (D) Pennsylvania 2 2 Heinz* (R) vs. Lautenberg (D) Pennsylvania 2 2 Heinz* (R) vs. Wecht (D) Rhode Island 0.5 1 Chafee* (R) vs. Michaelson (D) Vermont 0.5 0.5 Stafford* (R) vs. Guest (D) MIDWEST Indiana 1.5 1.5 Lugar* (R) vs. Fithian (D) Minnesota 0 0 Durenberger* (R) vs. Dayton (D) Missouri 1 1 Danforth* (R) vs. Woods (D) WEST California 0. 0.5 Wilson (R) vs. Brown (D) New Mexico$0.5 1 Schmitt* (R) vs. Bingaman (D) Utah 1 1 Hatch* (R) vs. Wilson (D) Wyoming 1.5 1 Wallop* (R) vs. McDaniel (D) Rating system: 2, strong for incumbent party; 1, leaning toward incumbent party; 0, even race * Incumbent

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