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April 24, 1981



If informed Mideast sources are correct, it will be a long, hot summer for Lebanon. These sources say they expect the contuining Syrian-Falangist clashes around the Bekaa valley town of Zahle to be followed by Syrian moves this summer against the three guerrilla bases of the Lebanese Baath Party and, later, 13 PLO bases in the same valley.

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Reason: Syria is believed determined to secure the land and air approaches to Syrian population centers that Israel could use in a conflict. At the same time , the Falangists, if prevented from linking up with the Israeli-backed Saad Haddad forces in the south, may try to secure the mountain route through south ern Lebanon.