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Now Mayor Edward Koch and other city fathers are forecasting that the "Big Apple" will wind up the current fiscal year with a small budget surplus. The reason: increased tax revenues.

But a nonprofit watchdog group says the city still faces a "service crisis," with consequences "perhaps more threatening than bankruptcy posed in 1975."

Just when Gov. Hugh Carey had hoped to hike state aid to the city's deteriorating transit system -- with Washington's cooperation -- some of President-elect Reagan's transition advisers have advocated slashing mass-transit subsidies to New York and other ci ties.

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