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Do events on the Iran-Iraq border mark favorable foreign weather for Jimmy Carter's political fortunes? The wind could change fast, most analysts say, but so far Carter is faring well. Any publicity he gets in his role as president is more valuable politically than making news as a presidential contender.

The situation also gives a sense of reality to Carter charges of Reagan jingoism and recklessness. The message Democrats want to get over is loud and clear: If Reagan were president, would he overreact?

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