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The polls are doing flip-flops on whether Reagan or Carter has the edge in national popularity. A Harris-ABC News survey taken April 8 found that Reagan had overtaken the President in the preference of likely voters, 48 to 45 percent. But a Gallup poll sampling all registered voters a week later found Carter still leading 49 to 44 percent.

The pattern seems to be that, while Carter is the more popular among all registered voters, the percentages favor Reagan among those likely to vote.

In a similar vein, a poll by the Kennedy campaign in Pennsylvania showed President Carter 10 points ahead of the senator among Democrats in the state. Yet the President's campaign pollster, Patrick Caddell, found Carter 3 points behind the senator among those Democrats considered likely to vote.m

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